https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/01/fabrizio-romano-january-transfers-premier-league/
Radu Dragusin to Tottenham
Fabrizio says: Negotiations are at an advanced stage for a fee of €25 million plus add-ons, but Genoa want €30m and Bayern Munich are also interested in case Spurs deal won’t be closed soon. But Dragusin already agreed on personal terms with Tottenham and they remain favourites. Spurs want him as they’ve been scouting the defender for a long time. In my opinion, he’s a very good and underrated centre back; he did fantastically for Genoa and can have a similar impact as [Guglielmo] Vicario had at Tottenham.
The data says: Dragusin is playing for a newly promoted Serie A side that naturally aren’t able to dominate the ball like his prospective new employers do under Ange Postecoglou, but having helped Genoa out of Serie B last season, he has experience playing in a possession-dominant team, too. The 21-year-old ranked third in Serie B in 2022-23 for successful passes (1,641) and fifth for carries of more than five metres that he followed with a pass (370). Right-footed but deployed on the left side of a back three, Dragusin is a technically competent defender who is comfortable and effective bringing the ball out of defence.
This season, with Genoa having adapted to life in the top tier by playing a more reactive style of football – they rank 19th of 20 teams for average possession share (42.1%) – Dragusin hasn’t been able to show off his passing ability anything like as much. He has, however, still completed at least 57 more passes (568) than any other Genoa player, showing that when they do play out, they tend to go through him.
He has had to do more defending in the top flight, and he has responded well. In 2023-24, he ranks second in Serie A for clearances made (87) and top of all defenders – and third overall – for aerial duels won (59). He has also only been dribbled past once despite playing every single available minute of league football so far this season. Spurs need reinforcements at centre-back and Dragusin looks like he could be a very good addition.
Timo Werner to Tottenham
Fabrizio says: Done deal. Medical tests have been booked and Werner immediately accepted Spurs’ proposal on loan with €18/20m buy option clause (not mandatory). It’s Spurs deciding in the summer what they want to do with Werner, while they will cover his salary until June. In my opinion it’s a win-win situation: Werner wants to play and help, Spurs needed a cheap option, he can be ideal for Postecoglou’s “fluid” football. A quick player who loves to run in the spaces, I think he can be helpful for the north London side.
The data says: Werner is known in England as a striker who misses too many chances for good reason. During his two seasons at Chelsea – 2020-21 and 2021-22 – Werner underperformed in front of goal to a greater extent than any other Premier League player. He scored 10 goals from chances worth 18.3 expected goals (xG), with his underperformance of 8.3 the worst record in the top flight in that time.
A lack of confidence appeared to play a big part in Werner’s struggles in England, so it will be interesting to see how he contends with a move back to the Premier League and the scrutiny that will come with that. His numbers from his 18 months back in Germany with RB Leipzig aren’t exactly groundbreaking but his finishing at least looked to have improved to around an average level, with Werner scoring 11 goals from 11.4 xG. Wherever he has gone, the German has got into good goalscoring positions – during his two years in England, he averaged 0.42 non-penalty xG per 90, which was the 10th-highest total among Premier League players to play at least 2,500 minutes. Back in Germany, he has continued to work good opportunities, generating chances worth 0.44 xG per 90 – the seventh-highest such rate (min. 2,000 minutes played).
The question, then, is whether he can replicate his Bundesliga numbers in England, or if he just isn’t suited or cut out to play in the Premier League. Much of that will boil down to the work of Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou, and how well he can build his new forward’s confidence.